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Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-04 03:32:38 +0000

9/3/2004: down to twenty-five. (The Yankees' lead is down to 2 1/2.)

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-10 05:10:30 +0000

This is my 666th post. Following the Angels' loss tonight, the magic number is down to 19.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-10 05:23:19 +0000

This is my 494th post. The magic number is still 19.

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-12 05:41:05 +0000

Sixteen and dropping like a brick.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-13 13:30:35 +0000

Even with the loss yesterday? M = 163 - W(1) - L(2) 163 - 90 - 56 = ..... I get 17. I guess there is a half-game in there, somewhere.

Posted by rladew on 2004-09-13 17:01:38 +0000

how does a brick drop?

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-13 17:28:28 +0000

I'm not sure where you're getting 163, Terry.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-13 18:20:46 +0000

[url]http://www.obsoletecomputermuseum.org/magic/magicexpo.shtml[/url] One way of calculating the magic number is: M = G1 + 1 - (L2 - L1) The other is: M = G2 + 1 - ( W1 - W2 ) After a little algebra, you get: M = 163 - W1 - L2

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-13 18:26:13 +0000

I was subtracting the number of games left from the wild card lead and adding one. So let's see: BOS 86-56 ANA 81-51 lead: 5.0 games. Both teams have 20 games left, the lead is five, add one. Sixteen.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-13 18:59:16 +0000

Actually, the standings are: BOS 86-56 ANA 81-[b:444b544b08]61[/b:444b544b08] 163 - 86 - 61 = 16 20 games left is 162 - (W2 + L2) minus 5 game lead is L1 - L2 plus 1 ------- 16 = 162 - (W2 - L2) - (L1 - L2) + 1 16 = 162 - W2 - L2 - L1 + L2 + 1 16 = 163 - W2 - L1 That's 16 for the AL Wild Card. and 193 - 90 - 56, is 17 for the Yanks in the AL East. (Sorry, my post was for the AL East race...) Rich, a brick drops at 9.8 m/s/s, regardless of mass. ;)

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-13 19:01:14 +0000

It's been a long time since I did word problems.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-14 20:31:47 +0000

AL East W L Pct. GB NY 90 54 .625 -- BOS 86 56 .606 3.0 AL Wild card standings BOS 86 56 .606 -- ANA 82 61 .573 4.5 TEX 78 65 .545 8.5 After an idle day for the Red Sox, we got: 163 - 90 - 56 = 17 is still the magic numbr for the MFY. and 163 - 86 - 61 = 16 is still the magic number for The Olde Towne Team to clinch the AL Wild Card. I gotta like the report in today's Globe that Arroyo, Schilling and Lowe are poised to pitch the last three games no matter what.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-15 13:51:40 +0000

AL East W L Pct. GB NY 91 54 .628 -- BOS 86 57 .601 4.0 AL Wild Card BOS 86 57 .601 -- ANA 82 62 .569 4.5 MFY are at 15 Boston 's got 15 too. I should be able to write a webscript that does this....

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-15 17:21:33 +0000

A web script would be pretty sick. I bet you could write a Cy Young Predictor script, as per the Rob Neyer thread that is on this page somewhere.

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-16 05:53:03 +0000

Lucky thirteen as of 2 am on 9/16/04.

Posted by on 2004-09-16 15:32:32 +0000

F the Magic Number... it's all about RIOT: http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html -=>J

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-16 15:44:02 +0000

Fantastic.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-16 16:00:56 +0000

I actually went to the RIOT website when I was considering the formula for the magic number, oops, first place clinch number. But missed the current listings.

Posted by tendiamonds on 2004-09-20 14:06:12 +0000

Shit. Today, for the first day this season, the Sox no longer have a riot number for the division. Note. I think the "Magic Number" is listed at 9 now, but RIOT has it at 6 (due to scheduled games betwixt Oakland and Anaheim, I think) Perhaps this should be in a different thread, but I think the biggest impact on this season is Baltimore, who has played fantastically against Boston and shitty against New York... Boston's record, if we remove the Baltimore games (so far) is 85-52; New York's is 79-51. The next 7 games should be interesting. -=>J

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-20 16:51:12 +0000

Who would have thought the Birds could do in the Sox this year? To be fair, the Sox seem to be doing a fine job by themselves.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-20 17:15:30 +0000

The Yanks' 9 means if they win 9 more games, they clinch the A.L. East. The Sox * means currently, winning the remaining 14 games does not mean an A.L. East title...unless the Yanks lose a couple, three this week? The 6 and 5 means the Sox need 6 wins to clinch the A.L. Wild Card and at least 5 to keep from being eliminated? The Angels need at least 5 as well... I'm still wrapping my head around this one.

Posted by tendiamonds on 2004-09-20 19:30:10 +0000

OK, get this: The RIOT Clinch numbers mean that if the teams that are in contention for that position (either first in your division or wildcard) win as many games as possible (which factors in games against each other) this is how many games they need to win to clinch. So for the MFY to clinch 1st in the division they must win 9 games to beat out a RS team winning as many others as possible. However, if the MFY win one more game, they will at least have a wildcard spot. The Elim Numbers mean that if all the other teams that are in contention for that title play as _poorly_ as possible, how many does this team need to win. So for the RS, if everyone else loose as many as possible, they are in for the playoffs. If the MFY lose all of their remaining games, the RS need to win 5 for the division. Got it? -=>J

Posted by tendiamonds on 2004-09-20 19:37:07 +0000

Oh, yeah, and the Sox need 15 to clinch the East, and they only have 14 games, hence the *... it means the RS fate is no longer in their own hands. They still, IMHO, have the East title in the bag. -=>J

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-20 20:10:36 +0000

Right, the * could drop from the RS standing if the MFY loose one or two this week and then get swept next weekend in the Fens. I like how the Clinch and Elim. numbers take into account the opponents for the rest of the schedule, and indicate playoff potential whether via division title or wild card. These 2004 A.L. East champs just need to sweep the Yanks in the Fens (a given) and play better than .500 ball for the rest of the games. You know the MFY are gonna go 5-6 for the rest, especially with 3 against the Twins. The Birds though, the Birds scare me.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-22 14:21:53 +0000

MFY are in the playoffs, no matter what. RS need five wins to avoid elimination. Big series this weekend, eh?

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-22 17:30:42 +0000

This weekend is going to be hot. Tonight's going to be pretty high on the unintentional comedy scale: It's Bronson, who weighs like 50 pounds soaking wet, complete with his fruity little cornrows, against Sidney Ponson, who is, uh, not in as dire need of like a sandwich as Bronson is, will say.

Posted by frame609 on 2004-09-23 07:49:18 +0000

The magic number is now five.

Posted by tgl on 2004-09-27 16:08:41 +0000

RIOT says that the RS are "In". http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html