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Posted by tendiamonds on 2004-10-04 20:26:06 +0000

Bayesian stats predict world series

Ok, so I found this site: http://spartan.ac.brocku.ca/~jyuen/MLB/mlbpred.html and it's stats are based on Data up through September 10th, which is fine by me. They have all of the playoff contenders essentially right (based on highest probability) except for: 1) Boston getting the East and MFY getting the Wild Card 2) They have Cubs (.35) slightly better than Astros (.32) for the NLWC 3) They have Oakland (.50) better than Anaheim (.47) for the West Nevertheless, I like their theory. Leaves us with: Round 1: Boston (.65) beats Anaheim (.29) MFY (.41) beat Twinkies (.34) Cards (.67) beat Dodgers (.34) Atlanta (.56) beats Roger (.15) Pennant: Boston (.43) beats MFY (.15) Cards (.39) beat Braves (.28) WS: Boston (.24) beats St Louis (.22) Any numbers that have good news are sound in my book. -=>J
Posted by tgl on 2004-10-04 21:01:16 +0000
Better Living Through Math. I can't argue with this. Interesting that the Cards stay around 22% for the entire season... How 'bout a quick primer on 'Bayesian'. Then when the RS win the World Series, I'll know why my spam filter works.
Posted by tendiamonds on 2004-10-04 21:17:01 +0000
Based on the first three paragraphs of this article, I'm going to have to say this is a good one to read. Unfortunately, I think this all means that the more spam we get between now and Halloween, the less likely the Red Sox are to win the World Series.
Posted by dawnbixtler on 2004-10-04 23:57:56 +0000
I like the .717 for next year's red sox winning percentage....
Posted by rladew on 2004-10-05 03:32:17 +0000
You guys might be pessimistic in politics, but I'll hand it to ya: I'm digging the optimism here :)
Posted by tgl on 2004-10-05 03:39:53 +0000
When wasn't I optimistic for a Bush defeat? Hey... is there a Bayesian prediction for the election?
Posted by frame609 on 2004-10-05 07:17:29 +0000
Fuck Joan Baez: Astros over Braves. Dodgers over Cardinals. Twins over Yankees.
Posted by tgl on 2004-10-05 13:35:10 +0000
Baezian. Wow.
Posted by frame609 on 2004-10-05 17:08:24 +0000
She can take her big yellow taxi and shove it!
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