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Posted by tgl on 2004-11-05 06:31:07 +0000

that eye and the pyramid thing

http://blackboxvoting.org/#foia Haven't read it all. Why were the exit polls so far off? They weren't off in 2000. Florida's exit polls correctly reflected the final tabulation in 2000, it was the networks who screwed up. This year the exit polls were incorrect in many states. (NH started off with an 18% spread, for example). A reasonable explaination is that early voting was done primarily by Bush voters, those the people coming out on election day were mostly Kerry voters. Or that Bush voters mostly voted in the afternoon and evening... Maybe I'm up too late.
Posted by tgl on 2004-11-05 14:54:02 +0000
Got the exit poll thing wrong: exit polls used data from the early voters that went predominately Kerry. So, the polls showed stronger support for Kerry that ended up being swamped by day-of voters. The final exit polls did mirror the tallies reported by officials, so, maybe this fear of tampering is overblown. It should be transparent information though, hope these guys can get it.
Posted by bizquig3000 on 2004-11-05 15:51:17 +0000
I'd heard that pollsters inexplicably only polled women, who tended to vote more for Kerry than Bush.
Posted by tgl on 2004-11-05 15:52:45 +0000
Heard that too.
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